By Robb Barnes, Climate Program Director

Over the past year, political vultures have been circling, waiting for the death of the consumer-facing carbon tax.

Last fall, by carving out a special exemption for Atlantic provinces, the federal government effectively conceded to an untrue argument: that the consumer-facing carbon price burdens consumers and drives up the cost of living. That opened the door for premiers and industries nationwide to line up for similar handouts. Whether or not their requests were made in good faith — a dubious claim, considering the poor climate track records of many — this push has turned what was once Canada’s flagship climate policy into Swiss cheese.

The affordability myth and equally false claims tying the carbon price to inflation are central to the ‘Axe the Tax’ rhetoric Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has been using to energize his base and surge in the polls.

Of course, truth has never been a prerequisite for political success, and Canadian politics are no exception. There’s a famous line often wrongly attributed to Mark Twain: “A lie can travel halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to put on its shoes.” It’s fitting that even this quote is often misattributed — it underscores how misinformation works.

And right now misinformation is winning. The NDP is the latest party to drop its support for the carbon tax, parroting the affordability argument and offering no serious alternative. The political cognoscenti seem to agree: no matter the policy’s merits, the politics are bad, and the consumer-facing carbon price must go. Some even claim that Canada can abandon its carbon price without derailing its climate goals because other countries, like the US, are tackling climate change without one.

That might be convincing — if it were true. But it doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. The USA’s Inflation Reduction Act is often held up as proof that carbon pricing is unnecessary because this is a major climate policy that involves subsidies rather than a price on carbon. Unfortunately, Canada’s federal government can’t match the record spending levels the US has poured into climate measures. More importantly, even with all that investment, the US isn’t meeting its climate targets. For all its merits, the Inflation Reduction Act is only one part of the mix of policies needed to tackle climate breakdown. As it turns out, a comprehensive analysis of hundreds of global climate policies has found that carbon pricing is essential to that policy mix, especially when paired with other measures like subsidies and regulations.

Speaking of regulations, Canada is working on its own suite of policies that could make a real difference. Electricity, methane, and oil and gas pollution rules are all in the works, and the oil and gas emissions cap is particularly promising. Oil and gas is Canada’s largest source of emissions, and it has continued to offset reductions made by other sectors.

So yes, regulations can be very useful, and sector-specific regulations that target Canada’s biggest source of carbon pollution are essential. But here’s the problem: the atmosphere doesn’t care about well-meaning intentions or delayed promises. The emissions cap has been stuck in the proverbial pipeline for years. If it doesn’t materialize soon—within weeks, not months—the policy will never see the light of day before a possible change in government.

And if that happens – if Canada ditches an effective carbon price in favour of a policy that never comes to pass – we’ll be fighting climate change with both hands tied behind our backs. The vultures won’t just be circling one dead policy; they’ll be celebrating the failure of Canada’s climate efforts altogether.